Al-Nassr 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to King Saud University Stadium to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Thursday 8 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Nassr (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.50 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Nassr 0W, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 70% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 72% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.27 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.531 / defence 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.096 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.449. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.531 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Al-Nassr games / 46 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Nassr 2.27 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.531 / def 0.779 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.096 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 8 January 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Nassr 1 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 60% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.53) and Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack (1.10x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
60%
1.65
20%
5.06
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.50
1.24
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
1.65
60%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
10%
9.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
2%
48.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.24 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr come into this having played 46 games, going 30W 8D 8L for 2.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 46 outings (28W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.13 PPG for Al-Nassr against 2.00 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Nassr's home form reads 15W 5D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.67 scored and 0.93 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Qadisiyah FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 30W 8D 8L in their last 46 games (2.13 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 8D 10L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Qadisiyah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Nassr
0
Draws
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 70%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al-Nassr) and 52% (Al-Qadisiyah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Nassr's games and 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Nassr's matches and 52% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Nassr 1-2 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.27 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.53 / defence 0.78 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 60% | Draw 20% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 20%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al-Qadisiyah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 72%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.13 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.