Al-Nassr 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 41%, yet in-form Al-Nassr provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr's home record at Mrsool Park: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Nassr, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 56% versus Al-Ittihad FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 65% | Al-Ittihad FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.14 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.174 / defence 0.948 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.287 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.083. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Al-Nassr games / 34 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Nassr (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Nassr 1.14 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.174 / def 0.948 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.287 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al-Ittihad FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Nassr 0 - 0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 32% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Nassr 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.17x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.69
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.46
1.32
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.32 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 22W 4D 8L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 23W 6D 5L from 34 games, 2.21 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Nassr on 2.06 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 2.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (12W 2D 3L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 11W 3D 3L from 17 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.85 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Ittihad FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 22W 4D 8L in their last 34 games (2.06 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 23W 6D 5L in their last 34 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.24 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 65%, Al-Ittihad FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Nassr and 59% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al-Nassr's games and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Nassr's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 5, as Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.14 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 65%, Al-Ittihad FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.06 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.