Al-Nassr 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Mrsool Park to face Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 6W 2D 2L at Mrsool Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Fateh's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Al-Nassr, 1.70 for Al-Fateh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Nassr lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Nassr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 59% versus Al-Fateh 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 66% | Al-Fateh 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.223 / defence 1.189 | Al-Fateh attack 0.864 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Data: 29 Al-Nassr games / 29 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fateh 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Fateh 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 1.29 / Al-Fateh 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.223 / def 1.189 | Al-Fateh attack 0.864 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al-Fateh xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr 2 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 35% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Nassr 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.22) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.86x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.84
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.65
1.37
Al-Fateh xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.37 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 18W 4D 7L from 29 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 12L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 9W 2D 3L from 14 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.52 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 18W 4D 7L in their last 29 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.07 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Fateh see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 64%, Al-Fateh 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al-Nassr) and 29% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 36%; Al-Fateh in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 36% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 29% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Nassr defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.29 xG and Al-Fateh 1.37 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.22 / defence 1.19 against Al-Fateh attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 39%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Nassr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 66%, Al-Fateh 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.