Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Saud University Stadium plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Al-Nassr at King Saud University Stadium this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 3.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Al-Ahli Jeddah managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 93% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 60% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.47 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / defence 0.743 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.063 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.396. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Al-Nassr games / 62 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.57. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Nassr 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Nassr 1.47 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.335 / def 0.743 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.063 / def 0.721 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr 2 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 46% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.33x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.06x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
46%
2.20
26%
3.82
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.57
1.10
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.10 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 45W 7D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 41W 10D 11L from 62 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.29 PPG for Al-Nassr against 2.15 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.33 PPG from 30 outings (22W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 19W 4D 7L from 30 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.00 scored and 0.90 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 45W 7D 10L in their last 62 games (2.29 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 41W 10D 11L in their last 62 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 60%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al-Nassr) and 37% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 37% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 37% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.47 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.74 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.06 / defence 0.72, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 28%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 69%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Nassr 2.29 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.