Al Najma 2-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Najma Club Stadium plays host to Al Najma versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 2 January 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Al Najma (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Najma's home record at Al-Najma Club Stadium: 0W 0D 4L from 4 Pro League appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al Khaleej Saihat are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Al Najma — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 64% and Al Khaleej Saihat 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Najma 64% | Al Khaleej Saihat 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.36 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.776 / defence 1.195 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.177 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.462. Al Najma's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Al Najma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Al Najma games / 45 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 25% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.89. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al-Najma Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 25% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Al Najma 1.36 / Al Khaleej Saihat 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.776 / def 1.195 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.177 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 2 January 2026 at Al-Najma Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Najma 2 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al-Najma Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 25% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Najma's attack at 0.78x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.18x) against Al Najma's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
25%
4.07
22%
4.47
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Najma xG
Total xG
3.41
2.06
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
13%
7.81
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
3%
31.82
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Najma and 2.06 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Najma come into this having played 11 games, going 0W 1D 10L for 0.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Najma's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Najma are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 2.18 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 1D 10L in their last 11 games (0.09 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Najma at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Najma at home: 0.00 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
1
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Najma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Al Najma, 100% for Al Khaleej Saihat — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Najma and 75% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Najma have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Najma's games and 100% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Najma's matches and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Najma and Al Khaleej Saihat finished level at 2-2 at Al-Najma Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.36 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 2.06 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.18 / defence 1.22, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 25% | Draw 22% | Al Khaleej Saihat 53%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 64%, Al Khaleej Saihat 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Khaleej Saihat arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.