Al Najma 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Najma host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026 at 13:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al Najma have gone 0W 1D 5L this season (6 games, 0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fateh — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Al Najma trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Fateh trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 71% and Al-Fateh 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 71% | Al-Fateh 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.992 / defence 1.375 | Al-Fateh attack 0.857 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.419. Data: 14 Al Najma games / 48 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 67% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Najma 1.38 / Al-Fateh 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.992 / def 1.375 | Al-Fateh attack 0.857 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 13:40 on Friday 16 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Fateh?
Al Najma 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 32% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Fateh in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Najma's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Najma's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
32%
3.14
24%
4.21
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Najma xG
Total xG
3.06
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Najma and 1.67 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Najma's recent record stands at 0W 2D 12L from 14 games, a 0.14 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 6L across 14 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fateh by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Najma heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Najma have managed 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — 0.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Najma are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 2D 12L in their last 14 games (0.14 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Najma at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Najma at home: 0.17 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
1
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Fateh?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Najma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Najma 67%, Al-Fateh 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Najma) and 33% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 50%; Al Najma have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Najma's games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al Najma's recent games and 33% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Najma and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Najma and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Najma and Al-Fateh finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.67 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.99 / defence 1.38 against Al-Fateh attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 44%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 71%, Al-Fateh 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.