Al Najma 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al Najma. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Najma — All Games: 0W 0D 5L from 5 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Al Najma in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Najma 80% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 0.84 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.688 / defence 1.097 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.911 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.522. Al Najma's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Al Najma games / 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 21% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Najma 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 21% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Najma 0.84 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.688 / def 1.097 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.911 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 23 October 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Najma 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 21% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-0D-5L in 5 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Najma's attack rating (0.69) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Najma's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
21%
4.84
26%
3.86
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al Najma xG
Total xG
2.36
1.52
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
5%
22.17
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al Najma and 1.52 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Al Najma have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 5L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Najma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Najma.
The Goals Picture
Al Najma are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Al Najma or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Najma have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Najma
0
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Najma 80%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Al Najma) and 20% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al Najma's games and 40% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Al Najma's recent games and 20% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Najma and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Najma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Najma 0-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 0.84 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Najma fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.69 / defence 1.10 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.91 / defence 0.77, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 21% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 53%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 80%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Najma managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.