Al Kholood 0-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Al Kholood welcome Al-Ittihad FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's home record at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Kholood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Kholood, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 3–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 59% and Al-Ittihad FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 61% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.59 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.994 / defence 1.206 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.305 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.462. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 2.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al Kholood games / 46 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 26% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 3.85 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.85. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 2.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 26% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG Al Kholood 1.59 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.994 / def 1.206 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.305 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.30
Al-Ittihad FC xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 9 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Kholood 0 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 54% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.99) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 2.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.78
20%
5.03
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.89
2.30
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.78
26%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
10%
9.96
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
3%
37.61
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.30 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 16W 4D 26L from 46 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 33W 7D 6L across 46 games — 2.30 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Kholood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 10W 2D 10L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 13W 6D 3L across 22 trips, a 2.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Kholood are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 16W 4D 26L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 33W 7D 6L in their last 46 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.45 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
2
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-1 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Kholood at 59%, Al-Ittihad FC at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Kholood and 59% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Kholood's games and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Kholood's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Kholood 0-4 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.59 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.30 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 2.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 26% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 54%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 61%, Al-Ittihad FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.