Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Al Khaleej Saihat's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 60% and Al-Ittihad FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 57% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.856 / defence 0.951 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.062 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Data: 43 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 42 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 34% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 26% | Draw 34% | Al-Ittihad FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.856 / def 0.951 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.062 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Ittihad FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 3 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.86) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.06x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.78
34%
2.94
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.53
1.40
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.78
26%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.40 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 13D 19L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 42 outings (21W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 5D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 13D 19L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Ittihad FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 57% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.