Al Khaleej Saihat 3-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 2D 6L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 52% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.957 / defence 0.929 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.448 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.257. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 44 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.96. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.957 / def 0.929 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.448 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Khaleej Saihat 3 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 25% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.45x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
25%
3.99
24%
4.15
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.81
1.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.99
25%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
5%
21.62
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.69 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 14W 11D 19L from 44 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 40W 4D 0L across 44 games — 2.82 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 5W 7D 10L from 22 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 19W 3D 0L across 22 trips, a 2.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.91 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 40W 4D 0L in their last 44 (2.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.73 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 1-4 on 5 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 73% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 41%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 59% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 73% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Khaleej Saihat defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.45 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Al Khaleej Saihat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 46%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.82 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Al Khaleej Saihat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.