Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Fateh.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Khaleej Saihat welcome Al-Fateh to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:35 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Fateh's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Khaleej Saihat) versus 1.40 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Fateh 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 2–1 Al-Fateh — a Al Khaleej Saihat win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Al-Fateh trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 57% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Fateh 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.859 / defence 1.039 | Al-Fateh attack 0.910 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.303. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.327 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output up. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 60 games and Al-Fateh's last 60.

Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.15 | Draw 4.02 | Al-Fateh 3.48. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 70% (last 10 away games).

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