Al Khaleej Saihat 2-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 44%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ettifaq make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al Khaleej Saihat are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ettifaq are 0.70 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Al-Ettifaq 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Al-Ettifaq 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.960 / defence 1.212 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.688 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.255. Data: 24 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 54 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 / Al-Ettifaq 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.960 / def 1.212 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.688 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 May 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Khaleej Saihat 2 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 44% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.69x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.64
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.05 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 24 games, going 6W 2D 16L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 4W 2D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ettifaq's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 0.92 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 6W 2D 16L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
5
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 42% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 25% (Al-Ettifaq) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 33% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 25% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 33% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al-Ettifaq 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Ettifaq 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.38 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.69 / defence 1.00, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 28%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 46%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Al Khaleej Saihat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.