Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 3 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 0D 3L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taawon (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al Taawon are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ittihad FC lead 3W to 1W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 67% versus Al Taawon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al Taawon 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 xG and Al Taawon 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.008 / defence 0.867 | Al Taawon attack 1.240 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.500. Al Taawon have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Ittihad FC games / 45 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 28% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 2.17. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Al-Ittihad FC dominate the H2H record, yet Al Taawon are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al Taawon 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 28% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 / Al Taawon 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.008 / def 0.867 | Al Taawon attack 1.240 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al Taawon xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 28% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 4 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.24x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.88
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.61
Al Taawon xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.61 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 32W 7D 6L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 21W 10D 14L from 45 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.50 PPG from 22 outings (18W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 10W 4D 8L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.49 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 32W 7D 6L in their last 45 games (2.29 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
4
Draws
1
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Taawon have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 59%, Al Taawon 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 36% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 32%; Al Taawon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 41% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 36% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 xG and Al Taawon 1.61 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Al Taawon attack 1.24 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 28% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 46%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 60%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taawon's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.