Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 33 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al Riyadh to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Riyadh — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ittihad FC: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Al Riyadh, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Al Riyadh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 61% versus Al Riyadh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 51% | Al Riyadh 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.40 xG and Al Riyadh 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.179 / defence 1.011 | Al Riyadh attack 0.926 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.337. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al-Ittihad FC games / 41 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Al Riyadh 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.40 / Al Riyadh 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.179 / def 1.011 | Al Riyadh attack 0.926 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al Riyadh xG
67%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 61% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 5W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.18) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.33
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.65
1.25
Al Riyadh xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
9%
11.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
1%
67.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.25 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 21W 9D 11L from 41 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 21L across 41 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 13W 2D 6L from 21 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.05 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 9W 11D 21L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al Riyadh 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 52%, Al Riyadh 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 67% (Al Riyadh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 67% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 67% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.