Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Riyadh.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al Riyadh to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 November 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Riyadh — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ittihad FC: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al Riyadh, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Riyadh in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 67% and Al Riyadh 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al Riyadh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 xG and Al Riyadh 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.893 / defence 0.937 | Al Riyadh attack 0.823 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.545. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Ittihad FC games / 42 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Al Riyadh 3.85. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 / Al Riyadh 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.893 / def 0.937 | Al Riyadh attack 0.823 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al Riyadh xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 48% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (0.89) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.91
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.19
Al Riyadh xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
20.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.19 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 29W 7D 6L from 42 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 20L across 42 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Riyadh heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 17W 1D 3L from 21 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 5W 4D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.10 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 29W 7D 6L in their last 42 games (2.24 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.48 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al Riyadh 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 62%, Al Riyadh 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Ittihad FC and 62% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 67% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 62% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Riyadh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Riyadh 2-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 xG and Al Riyadh 1.19 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Al Riyadh attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 26%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 60%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.