Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al Okhdood at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 0D 4L at King Abdullah Sports City — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Ittihad FC's 20% rate and Al Okhdood's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Al-Ittihad FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al Okhdood, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 5–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad FC in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 64% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 58% | Al Okhdood 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.62 xG and Al Okhdood 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.863 / defence 0.762 | Al Okhdood attack 0.614 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.462. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Al-Ittihad FC games / 50 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Al Okhdood 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 20% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.62 / Al Okhdood 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.863 / def 0.762 | Al Okhdood attack 0.614 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Al Okhdood xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 26 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 59% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 0.86x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.74
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.31
0.69
Al Okhdood xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
34.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.69 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 34W 8D 8L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 11W 10D 29L from 50 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.42 PPG from 24 outings (19W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 6W 4D 14L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.92 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 8D 8L in their last 50 games (2.20 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 11W 10D 29L in their last 50 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.42 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Al-Ittihad FC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Okhdood see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 54%, Al Okhdood 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 38% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 38% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 38% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Okhdood 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Okhdood 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.62 xG and Al Okhdood 0.69 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Al Okhdood attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 59% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 14%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 58%, Al Okhdood 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.