Al-Ittihad FC 4-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 9W 1D 0L at King Abdullah Sports City — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Al-Fateh have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Fateh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 71% and Al-Fateh 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 66% | Al-Fateh 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.74 xG and Al-Fateh 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.185 / defence 0.879 | Al-Fateh attack 0.985 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.511. Data: 35 Al-Ittihad FC games / 35 Al-Fateh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fateh 3.45. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.74 / Al-Fateh 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.185 / def 0.879 | Al-Fateh attack 0.985 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Fateh xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC 4 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 48% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.26
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.05
1.31
Al-Fateh xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
5%
19.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.31 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 35 games, going 27W 5D 3L for 2.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.11 PPG from 35 outings (11W 6D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 16W 1D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.46 PPG overall — Al-Ittihad FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.37 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Fateh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 5D 3L in their last 35 games (2.46 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 11W 6D 18L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.88 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 71%, Al-Fateh 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Ittihad FC and 59% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 53% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 59% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 4-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.74 xG and Al-Fateh 1.31 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Al-Fateh attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 66%, Al-Fateh 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.