Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to King Fahd International Stadium to face Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:55 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37 xG and Al Taee 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al Taee attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.007. Data: 0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 0 Al Taee games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taee 3.70. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37 / Al Taee 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al Taee attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Taee xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee kicked off at 18:55 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 46% chance of winning, Al Taee a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (0.85) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.85x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.66
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.35
0.98
Al Taee xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.98 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Pre-Season
Al Taee
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 on 11 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al Taee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2024, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Taee?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Taee 1-0 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37 xG and Al Taee 0.98 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al Taee attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 27%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.