Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kingdom Arena plays host to Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kingdom Arena, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 2.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49% versus Al-Ittihad FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Al-Ittihad FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.46 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.294 / defence 0.911 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.006 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.393. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 41 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% | Draw 32% | Al-Ittihad FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ittihad FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% | Draw 32% | Al-Ittihad FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.46 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.294 / def 0.911 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.006 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al-Ittihad FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.29x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.01x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.74
1.28
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.28 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 31W 9D 1L from 41 games, a 2.49 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 11L across 41 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 15W 4D 1L from 20 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 8W 7D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.63 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.63 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 31W 9D 1L in their last 41 games (2.49 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 45%, Al-Ittihad FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 55% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Ittihad FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.46 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.91 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% | Draw 32% | Al-Ittihad FC 30%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%, Al-Ittihad FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.