Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Al-Hilal Saudi FC's favour (2.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% versus Al-Fayha 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Al-Fayha 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.38 xG and Al-Fayha 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.221 / defence 0.924 | Al-Fayha attack 0.851 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.365. Data: 31 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 31 Al-Fayha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.38 / Al-Fayha 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.221 / def 0.924 | Al-Fayha attack 0.851 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Fayha xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 44% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.22x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.85x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.71
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.07
Al-Fayha xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.07 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 31 games, going 21W 7D 3L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (8W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 11W 2D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (1W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.68 scored and 0.81 conceded. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's scoring rate against Al-Fayha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Al-Fayha in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 21W 7D 3L in their last 31 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 3-0 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 47%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 27% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 27% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.38 xG and Al-Fayha 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Al-Fayha attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 29%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Fayha 16%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.