Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-2 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to Kingdom Arena to face Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Hilal Saudi FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Kingdom Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.05 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.816 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.400. Data: 34 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 0 Al-Faisaly FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Faisaly FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Faisaly FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Faisaly FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.05 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.208 / def 0.816 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Faisaly FC xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 - 2 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 62% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.21) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.85x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.83
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.02
0.97
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
2%
45.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.97 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Pre-Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 4-2 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.05 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.97 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Faisaly FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.82 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Faisaly FC 17%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.