Al-Hazm 0-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 41%, yet in-form Al Taee provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al Taee at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 games at Ar-Rass Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taee — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 29% versus Al Taee 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 29% | Al Taee 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.08 xG and Al Taee 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.741 / defence 1.260 | Al Taee attack 0.581 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.087. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Al-Hazm games / 14 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 33% | Al Taee 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Al Taee 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taee (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 43% | Al Taee 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 33% | Al Taee 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Al-Hazm 1.08 / Al Taee 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.741 / def 1.260 | Al Taee attack 0.581 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al Taee xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taee kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Al-Hazm 0 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 41% chance of winning, Al Taee a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taee in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Al Taee (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al Taee's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
41%
2.44
33%
3.02
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
1.87
0.80
Al Taee xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.80 for Al Taee, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hazm come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 5D 7L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (5W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 0.79 PPG, Al Taee on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Hazm's home form reads 1W 4D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al Taee runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when Al Taee won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
3
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Taee?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Taee have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Taee see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Hazm 43% BTTS, Al Taee 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Hazm) and 43% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 43% of games; Al Taee in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 14% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 43% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al-Hazm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Hazm 0-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.08 xG and Al Taee 0.80 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hazm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.74 / defence 1.26 against Al Taee attack 0.58 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 33% | Al Taee 26%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 29%, Al Taee 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taee's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hazm 0.79 PPG, Al Taee 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.