Al-Hazm 0-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Fateh make the trip to Ar-Rass Stadium to face Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 18 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Hazm lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Al-Hazm winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 32% versus Al-Fateh 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 32% | Al-Fateh 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.93 xG and Al-Fateh 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.745 / defence 1.158 | Al-Fateh attack 0.774 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.181. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Al-Hazm games / 19 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 34% | Al-Fateh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Al-Fateh 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 40% | Al-Fateh 40% BTTS from recent games.

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