Al-Fayha 0-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.

Al Shabab have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Shabab away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Al-Fayha, 1.80 for Al Shabab — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Al Shabab hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Al Shabab winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 51% versus Al Shabab 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 49% | Al Shabab 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.30 xG and Al Shabab 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.814 / defence 0.751 | Al Shabab attack 1.187 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Al-Fayha games / 67 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 40% | Al Shabab 100% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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