Al-Fayha 0-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Shabab have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Al-Fayha's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Al Shabab hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2023, ended 2–3 with Al Shabab winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 49% versus Al Shabab 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al Shabab 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.57 xG and Al Shabab 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.849 / defence 0.760 | Al Shabab attack 0.915 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.391. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Al-Fayha games / 35 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 51% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Al Shabab 4.35. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Al Shabab lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Fayha carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Shabab 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 51% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Fayha 1.57 / Al Shabab 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.849 / def 0.760 | Al Shabab attack 0.915 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al Shabab xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fayha 0 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 51% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 4W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.92x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.95
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.54
0.97
Al Shabab xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
20.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.97 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 12D 14L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (17W 7D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 7D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.74 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 9W 12D 14L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.29 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
8
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Shabab have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 41%, Al Shabab 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al-Fayha and 76% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Al-Fayha's games and 76% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Fayha's matches and 76% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.57 xG and Al Shabab 0.97 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.85 / defence 0.76 against Al Shabab attack 0.92 / defence 1.34, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 51% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 23%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Al Shabab win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al Shabab 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.