Al-Fayha 2-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al Okhdood at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025 at 13:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's home record at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.10 PPG versus Al Okhdood's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fayha have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Fayha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fayha and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al Okhdood trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 42% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 44% | Al Okhdood 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.05 xG and Al Okhdood 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.794 / defence 0.846 | Al Okhdood attack 0.732 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.480. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Al-Fayha games / 41 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Okhdood 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al Okhdood 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 13:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Okhdood 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Fayha 1.05 / Al Okhdood 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.794 / def 0.846 | Al Okhdood attack 0.732 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 13:20 on Friday 7 November 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 37% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 4W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
37%
2.71
33%
3.00
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.97
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.92 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 14D 17L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.93 PPG from 41 outings (10W 8D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.07 PPG, Al Okhdood on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 8D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.00 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 14D 17L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 10W 8D 23L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.15 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Al-Fayha won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al-Fayha
0
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 6, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 40%, Al Okhdood 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Al-Fayha and 35% for Al Okhdood.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 45% of games; Al Okhdood in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 40% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 35% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.05 xG and Al Okhdood 0.92 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Okhdood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Al Okhdood attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Okhdood 30%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.07 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.