Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.62 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this term (3.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.62 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.71 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.29. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.62 PPG (Al-Fayha) versus 1.71 (Al-Nassr). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 57% and Al-Nassr 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 43% | Al-Nassr 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.16 xG and Al-Nassr 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.916 / defence 0.798 | Al-Nassr attack 1.009 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.110. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 8 Al-Fayha games / 7 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Nassr 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Nassr 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 0% | Al-Nassr 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Nassr 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Fayha 1.16 / Al-Nassr 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.916 / def 0.798 | Al-Nassr attack 1.009 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Nassr xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:50 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 42% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.25
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.06
0.89
Al-Nassr xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.89 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr's form line: 4W 0D 3L from 7 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.43 PPG, Al-Nassr on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 57%, Al-Nassr 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Fayha) and 71% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Fayha's games and 71% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Al-Fayha's matches and 71% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr finished level at 1-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.16 xG and Al-Nassr 0.89 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Al-Nassr attack 1.01 / defence 1.15, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Nassr 28%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 43%, Al-Nassr 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.43 PPG, Al-Nassr 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Nassr managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.