Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.70 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Fateh, with 5 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Fayha winning.
The historical record gives Al-Fayha a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al-Fateh 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 54% | Al-Fateh 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.65 xG and Al-Fateh 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.970 / defence 1.083 | Al-Fateh attack 0.960 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Al-Fayha games / 43 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Fateh 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 39% | Draw 30% | Al-Fateh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Fayha 1.65 / Al-Fateh 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.970 / def 1.083 | Al-Fateh attack 0.960 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Al-Fateh xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fayha 5W | Draws 5 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.31
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.09
1.44
Al-Fateh xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
6%
17.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.44 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fayha come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 12D 20L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.00 PPG from 43 outings (10W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.05 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.12 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 12D 20L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 57%, Al-Fateh 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 38% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Fayha's games and 57% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 38% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.