Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Al Majma’a Sport City to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 October 2026, 15:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L at Al Majma’a Sport City — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma’a Sport City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Al-Fayha.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ahli Jeddah have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 52% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 52% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.44 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.970 / defence 1.083 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.129 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Data: 43 Al-Fayha games / 42 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Majma’a Sport City • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 30% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Al-Fayha 1.44 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.970 / def 1.083 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.129 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 15:05 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Al Majma’a Sport City.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma’a Sport City.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
30%
3.37
30%
3.35
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.14
1.70
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
5%
18.39
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.70 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 30W 6D 6L across 42 games — 2.29 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 13W 2D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.17 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 30W 6D 6L in their last 42 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 48% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 38% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.