Al-Fateh 5-5 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 43%, yet in-form Damac provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fateh vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Damac travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 November 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in Pro League this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Damac in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Fateh 27% | Damac 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 27% | Damac 9%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Damac 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.007 / defence 0.981 | Damac attack 0.949 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.003. Data: 11 Al-Fateh games / 12 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 29% | Damac 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Damac 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Damac (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 25% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 29% | Damac 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Fateh 1.22 / Damac 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.007 / def 0.981 | Damac attack 0.949 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Damac xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Damac kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 25 November 2021 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Al-Fateh 5 - 5 Damac.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Damac part of?
Al-Fateh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 43% chance of winning, Damac a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Fateh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.44
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.16
0.93
Damac xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.93 for Damac, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 3D 5L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Al-Fateh are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Damac have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.27 scored and 0.55 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Damac in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Damac have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Damac away?
Damac's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.75 PPG; Damac away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Damac in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Damac runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Al-Fateh won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
6
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Damac have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Damac?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Damac tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fateh 25% BTTS, Damac 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Al-Fateh and 25% for Damac.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Damac in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 25% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 25% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Damac in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Damac share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Al-Fateh and Damac drew 5-5 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Damac 0.93 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac outscored their 0.93 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 29% | Damac 28%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 18% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 27%, Damac 9%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.