Al-Fateh 3-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh meet at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Fateh's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Riyadh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Riyadh and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 66% and Al Riyadh 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Al Riyadh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.32 xG and Al Riyadh 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.154 / defence 1.045 | Al Riyadh attack 0.810 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.443. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Al-Fateh games / 47 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Al Riyadh 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Fateh 2.32 / Al Riyadh 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.154 / def 1.045 | Al Riyadh attack 0.810 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Al Riyadh xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Fateh 3 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 62% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 3 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.15x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.81x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.23
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.54
1.22
Al Riyadh xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
10%
10.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
2%
53.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.22 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 8D 23L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 1.00 PPG from 47 outings (12W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.00 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 10W 3D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Riyadh have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (5W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.04 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 16W 8D 23L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Al-Fateh, 65% for Al Riyadh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Fateh and 65% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al-Fateh's games and 65% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Fateh's matches and 65% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Riyadh 3-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.32 xG and Al Riyadh 1.22 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Al Riyadh attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 19%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 60%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.19 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.