Al-Fateh 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Al-Raed meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Raed (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Al-Raed 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 2–3 with Al-Raed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 40% versus Al-Raed 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 51% | Al-Raed 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.38 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.094 / defence 0.998 | Al-Raed attack 1.002 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.118. Data: 37 Al-Fateh games / 37 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Raed 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 30% | Al-Raed 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Fateh 1.38 / Al-Raed 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.094 / def 0.998 | Al-Raed attack 1.002 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Raed xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Al-Fateh 1 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 42% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Raed in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Al-Raed (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.00x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.55
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.50
1.12
Al-Raed xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
7%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.12 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 8D 17L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (13W 6D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.22 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 6W 3D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.89 points per game from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 12W 8D 17L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 13W 6D 18L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 0-3 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
3
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 5, Al-Raed have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2025, when Al-Fateh 3-1 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Raed?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 39%, Al-Raed 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Fateh and 67% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Raed in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 56% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Fateh's matches and 67% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al-Raed 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.38 xG and Al-Raed 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Al-Raed attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 30%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 51%, Al-Raed 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.19 PPG, Al-Raed 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.