Al-Fateh 2-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 3 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this season.
Al-Nassr (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Al-Nassr 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 41% versus Al-Nassr 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Nassr 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Nassr 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.123 / defence 0.926 | Al-Nassr attack 1.218 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.102. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Al-Fateh games / 44 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 29% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Nassr 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 30% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 29% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Fateh 0.99 / Al-Nassr 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.123 / def 0.926 | Al-Nassr attack 1.218 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Nassr xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fateh 2 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 29% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.12x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.22x) against Al-Fateh's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
29%
3.40
29%
3.50
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.23
1.24
Al-Nassr xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.24 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 8D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.14 PPG from 44 outings (29W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 9W 2D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.00 points per game from 21 outings (13W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 16W 8D 20L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 29W 7D 8L in their last 44 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 33%, Al-Nassr 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Fateh) and 57% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 43%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 43% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Fateh's matches and 57% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr finished level at 2-2 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 0.99 xG and Al-Nassr 1.24 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Al-Nassr attack 1.22 / defence 0.64, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 29% | Draw 29% | Al-Nassr 42%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 50%, Al-Nassr 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.