Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 1 January 2022 at 13:40 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 38% versus Al-Nassr 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 38% | Al-Nassr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Nassr 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.282 / defence 1.409 | Al-Nassr attack 1.022 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.076. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Al-Fateh games / 14 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Nassr 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fateh 1.51 / Al-Nassr 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.282 / def 1.409 | Al-Nassr attack 1.022 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 13:40 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 37% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.02x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
37%
2.70
24%
4.11
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.06
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.73
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.55 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 4D 5L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.54 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.46 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 40%, Al-Nassr 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fateh) and 40% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 60% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 40% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Nassr 1.55 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.28 / defence 1.41 against Al-Nassr attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 39%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 38%, Al-Nassr 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.23 PPG, Al-Nassr 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.