Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fateh face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 14 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Al-Nassr hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 0–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al-Nassr 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 47% | Al-Nassr 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.01 xG and Al-Nassr 2.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.737 / defence 1.334 | Al-Nassr attack 1.275 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.476. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — the away xG of 2.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al-Fateh games / 45 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 12% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 68%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 8.33 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Nassr 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.01 / 2.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Nassr 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 12% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fateh 1.01 / Al-Nassr 2.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.737 / def 1.334 | Al-Nassr attack 1.275 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
2.51
Al-Nassr xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 December 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 12% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 8W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.27x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.51.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.3%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
12%
8.49
20%
5.07
68%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.52
2.51
Al-Nassr xG
8.49
12%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.46
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
8%
12.29
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
1%
104.35
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 2.51 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 13D 22L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.53 PPG from 45 outings (37W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.27 points per game from 22 outings (16W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.64 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 22L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 37W 3D 5L in their last 45 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.18 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 59%, Al-Nassr 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Al-Fateh and 73% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 46%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Fateh's games and 54% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Fateh's matches and 73% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.