Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Najma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al Najma at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 14 May 2026 at 16:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Najma — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Najma away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.90 PPG versus Al Najma's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Najma 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al Najma trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 66% and Al Najma 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 47% | Al Najma 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Al Najma 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.952 / defence 1.007 | Al Najma attack 0.615 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.436. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Al-Fateh games / 32 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 23% | Al Najma 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Al Najma 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Najma 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 23% | Al Najma 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fateh 1.98 / Al Najma 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.952 / def 1.007 | Al Najma attack 0.615 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Najma xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Najma kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Najma kicked off at 16:55 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Najma?
Al-Fateh 2 - 0 Al Najma.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Najma part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 62% chance of winning, Al Najma a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Najma?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al Najma 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Najma in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Al Najma (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al Najma's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Al Najma's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.39
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.87
0.89
Al Najma xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
25%
3.92
2%
47.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.89 for Al Najma, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 9D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Al Najma sit at 0.41 PPG from 32 outings (2W 7D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 6W 4D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Najma have taken 0.19 points per game from 16 outings (0W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.97 scored and 2.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Al Najma in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al Najma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 2W 7D 23L in their last 32 (0.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Najma away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.38 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Najma runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al Najma have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Najma?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 69%, Al Najma 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Fateh and 69% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Najma in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Najma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al-Fateh's games and 56% of Al Najma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Fateh's matches and 69% of Al Najma's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Najma tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Najma in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Najma 2-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.98 xG and Al Najma 0.89 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Najma landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Al Najma attack 0.61 / defence 1.38, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 23% | Al Najma 15%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 47%, Al Najma 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Najma's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.03 PPG against 0.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.