Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Al-Fateh take on Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Maydan Tamweel Al Oula to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Maydan Tamweel Al Oula this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Maydan Tamweel Al Oula than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 0.70 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Al Khaleej Saihat have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fateh and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 46% | Al Khaleej Saihat 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.02 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.697 / defence 1.144 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.739 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 37% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Maydan Tamweel Al Oula • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 37% | Al Khaleej Saihat 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Fateh 1.02 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.697 / def 1.144 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.739 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Maydan Tamweel Al Oula.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Maydan Tamweel Al Oula.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 28% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fateh 6W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.70) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.63
37%
2.70
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.19
1.17
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.63
28%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.17 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 13D 20L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 11W 13D 19L from 43 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.00 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 8D 9L from 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.40 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.24 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fateh have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 6, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 57%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Fateh) and 57% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Fateh's games and 76% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 57% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.