Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 5W 1D 4L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 3W 4D 2L from 9 road trips in Pro League this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.40 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Hazm in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Hazm 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 67% and Al-Hazm 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 56% | Al-Hazm 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.01 xG and Al-Hazm 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.240 / defence 1.217 | Al-Hazm attack 0.875 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.426. Data: 52 Al-Fateh games / 18 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hazm 3.45. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Hazm 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Fateh 2.01 / Al-Hazm 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.240 / def 1.217 | Al-Hazm attack 0.875 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Hazm xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 49% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.24) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.88x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.46
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.53
1.52
Al-Hazm xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
4%
25.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.52 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 6W 4D 8L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 5W 5D 8L from 18 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.11 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.06 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Al-Fateh, 67% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Fateh and 67% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al-Fateh's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Fateh's matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.01 xG and Al-Hazm 1.52 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.24 / defence 1.22 against Al-Hazm attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 49% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 29%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 56%, Al-Hazm 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.