Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 51%, yet in-form Al-Fayha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Al-Fayha travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 16:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Pro League fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 3.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al-Fateh's 0% and Al-Fayha's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.48 xG and Al-Fayha 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.960 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fayha attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 0.930. Data: 1 Al-Fateh games / 1 Al-Fayha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 4.35. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Fateh 1.48 / Al-Fayha 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.960 / def 1.150 | Al-Fayha attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.344 / away 0.930 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:50 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 51% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.80
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.39
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
5%
19.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.91 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fayha by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fateh heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al-Fayha in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
5
Draws
5
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 0% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 0% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.48 xG and Al-Fayha 0.91 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Al-Fayha attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 23%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 0%, Al-Fayha 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.