Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab meet at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Faisaly FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Shabab are 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 70% versus Al Shabab 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al Shabab 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.13 xG and Al Shabab 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.049 / defence 1.290 | Al Shabab attack 1.085 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.000. Data: 10 Al-Faisaly FC games / 11 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 83% | Al Shabab 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.13 / Al Shabab 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.049 / def 1.290 | Al Shabab attack 1.085 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al Shabab xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Faisaly FC 0 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 30% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Faisaly FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Al Shabab's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.08x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
30%
3.29
27%
3.77
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.40
Al Shabab xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.40 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 5D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.90 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al Shabab have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2022, when Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 75%, Al Shabab 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al-Faisaly FC) and 25% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 25% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 25% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Faisaly FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Shabab finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.13 xG and Al Shabab 1.40 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Faisaly FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.29 against Al Shabab attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 30% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 43%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al Shabab 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.