Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 31 as Al-Faisaly FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to . Kick-off is set for Wednesday 12 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC at this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Faisaly FC's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Faisaly FC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Faisaly FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 83%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 67% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Faisaly FC 58% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 92%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.57 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.220 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.114 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Al-Faisaly FC games / 45 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 67% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.57 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.781 / def 1.220 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.114 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Faisaly FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Faisaly FC's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
29%
3.48
25%
3.99
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
3.58
2.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
13%
7.42
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
4%
25.79
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 2.00 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Faisaly FC come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 4D 6L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (8W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Faisaly FC's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 0D 4L in their last 12 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Faisaly FC at 67%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Faisaly FC and 100% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.