Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Wehda Club to EGO Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at EGO Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wehda Club — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Ettifaq at 1.50 PPG versus Al Wehda Club's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Ettifaq, 0 for Al Wehda Club and 4 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Al Wehda Club in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 51% versus Al Wehda Club 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al Wehda Club 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.745 / defence 0.892 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.876 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Al-Ettifaq games / 67 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Al Wehda Club 2.78. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Wehda Club 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.12 / Al Wehda Club 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.745 / def 0.892 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.876 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Wehda Club xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 1 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 4 | Al Wehda Club 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.74x the league average against Al Wehda Club's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.47
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.24
1.12
Al Wehda Club xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.12 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 25W 20D 22L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Al Wehda Club's form line: 19W 12D 36L from 67 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.42 PPG, Al Wehda Club on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.27 PPG from 33 outings (11W 9D 13L).
On the road, Al Wehda Club have gone 9W 4D 20L from 33 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.28 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 25W 20D 22L in their last 67 games (1.42 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 19W 12D 36L in their last 67 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.27 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
4
Draws
0
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Wehda Club.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 52%, Al Wehda Club 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ettifaq) and 52% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Wehda Club in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 48% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 52% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Wehda Club 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Wehda Club 2-1 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.12 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Wehda Club 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.42 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.