Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al-Ettifaq, 1.40 for Al Shabab — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 4 of the last 9 meetings against Al Shabab — a 4D 1W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Al-Ettifaq a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 57% versus Al Shabab 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.081 / defence 0.965 | Al Shabab attack 0.890 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Data: 58 Al-Ettifaq games / 58 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al Shabab 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al Shabab 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.44 / Al Shabab 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.081 / def 0.965 | Al Shabab attack 0.890 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Shabab xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 4W | Draws 4 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (1.08) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.89x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.58
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.64
1.21
Al Shabab xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.21 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 25W 13D 20L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 24W 13D 21L from 58 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.47 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 10W 8D 11L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 25W 13D 20L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 24W 13D 21L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Shabab have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Al Shabab 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Ettifaq) and 48% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games; Al Shabab in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 52% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 48% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab finished level at 1-1 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG and Al Shabab 1.21 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.08 / defence 0.96 against Al Shabab attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.52 PPG, Al Shabab 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.