Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al-Ettifaq's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.78 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.905 / defence 1.299 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.474 / defence 0.621. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.403. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.621 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.474 — the away xG of 2.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Al-Ettifaq games / 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 7% | Draw 17% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 76%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 14.29 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.32. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (76%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 7% | Draw 17% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.78 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.905 / def 1.299 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.474 / def 0.621 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
2.69
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
52%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 2 April 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 7% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 76% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 2.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (10.1%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
7%
14.37
17%
5.94
76%
1.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.47
2.69
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
14.37
7%
Home win
5.94
17%
Draw
1.31
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
7%
14.67
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
0%
–
35%
2.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.6 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.69 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 44 games, going 18W 11D 15L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 2.32 PPG from 44 outings (31W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 2.41 points per game from 22 outings (17W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.43 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 31W 9D 4L in their last 44 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 59%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al-Ettifaq and 68% for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 32%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 64% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 68% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.