Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:25 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.10 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 62% versus Al-Fayha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al-Fayha 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG and Al-Fayha 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.866 / defence 1.143 | Al-Fayha attack 0.862 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.522. Data: 42 Al-Ettifaq games / 42 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Fayha 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.35 / Al-Fayha 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.866 / def 1.143 | Al-Fayha attack 0.862 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Fayha xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:25 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 2 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 33% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.86x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.63
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.85
1.50
Al-Fayha xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.59
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.50 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 11D 15L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 11W 14D 17L from 42 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.12 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 5W 6D 10L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.86 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.19 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Al-Fayha 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ettifaq) and 62% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 38% of games; Al-Fayha in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 43% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 62% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fayha 3-2 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.35 xG and Al-Fayha 1.50 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.87 / defence 1.14 against Al-Fayha attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 40%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Fayha 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.40 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.