Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Faisaly FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:25 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 2D 2L this season (5 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 3D 1L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Faisaly FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 64% | Al-Faisaly FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.87 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.712 / defence 1.261 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.705 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.055. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Al-Ettifaq games / 11 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 32% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Faisaly FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al-Ettifaq's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Faisaly FC at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Faisaly FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 32% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.87 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.712 / def 1.261 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.705 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Faisaly FC xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 13:25 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 32% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.70x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
32%
3.16
33%
3.03
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
1.81
0.94
Al-Faisaly FC xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 15.4 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.94 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 4D 5L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Faisaly FC sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (3W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.91 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al-Faisaly FC have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Faisaly FC's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 0.50 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Faisaly FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Al-Ettifaq and 0% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.87 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.94 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Faisaly FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.71 / defence 1.26 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 32% | Draw 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 35%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 64%, Al-Faisaly FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Faisaly FC arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.