Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to EGO Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at EGO Stadium this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 45% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 41% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.800 / defence 1.391 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.934 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.438. Data: 49 Al-Ettifaq games / 49 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.94 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.800 / def 1.391 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.934 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 20 January 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.80) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
19%
5.40
22%
4.49
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.81
1.87
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
5.40
19%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
35.02
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.87 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 17W 15D 17L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 12L across 49 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 7D 10L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 10W 5D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.84 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 27W 10D 12L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Ettifaq) and 58% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 58% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 1.39 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 41%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.