Al-Ettifaq 2-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.911 / defence 0.860 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.343 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.479. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Al-Ettifaq games / 24 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.29 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.911 / def 0.860 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.343 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.91) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
28%
3.58
26%
3.87
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.00
1.71
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
5%
19.76
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.71 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 9W 8D 7L from 24 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 5L across 24 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 6W 1D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.04 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 14W 5D 5L in their last 24 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.45 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 64%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Al-Ettifaq and 82% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 82% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 46%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 54% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 82% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah finished level at 2-2 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.71 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.34 / defence 1.01, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 28% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 33%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.