Al Baten 3-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Batin FC Stadium plays host to Al Baten versus Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:40 UTC.
Form
Al Baten (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Al Baten have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taawon have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Al Baten against 0.90 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Al Baten — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 27% versus Al Taawon 82%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 36% | Al Taawon 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.26 xG and Al Taawon 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.774 / defence 1.304 | Al Taawon attack 1.122 / defence 1.486. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 0.994. Al Baten's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.486 — this is suppressing Al Baten's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Al Baten games / 11 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 33% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Al Taawon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al Baten 20% | Al Taawon 83%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 33% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Baten 1.26 / Al Taawon 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.774 / def 1.304 | Al Taawon attack 1.122 / def 1.486 | league avg home 1.093 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al Taawon xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Baten vs Al Taawon kicked off at 13:40 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al Taawon?
Al Baten 3 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Baten vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Baten vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 33% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Baten and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Baten and Al Taawon in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Baten's attack rating (0.77) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.12x) against Al Baten's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
33%
3.06
26%
3.90
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.71
1.45
Al Taawon xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.45 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Baten come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Al Baten against 0.91 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Baten's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.64 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Baten have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Baten's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Taawon go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
0
Draws
3
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al Taawon?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al Taawon have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2023, when Al Taawon 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 20%, Al Taawon 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Al Baten and 80% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al Baten's recent matches and 80% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Al Baten's matches and 80% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al Baten and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Baten defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al Taawon 3-2 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.26 xG and Al Taawon 1.45 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Baten beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Al Taawon attack 1.12 / defence 1.49, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 33% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 42%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Al Baten win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 36%, Al Taawon 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 0.82 PPG, Al Taawon 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Baten win broke the near-deadlock. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.