Al Baten 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Baten at 36%, yet in-form Al-Ettifaq provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Batin FC Stadium plays host to Al Baten versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Baten have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Al Baten have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ettifaq are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Baten, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Baten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 49% of games.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 45% versus Al-Ettifaq 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 53% | Al-Ettifaq 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.20 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.873 / defence 1.462 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.682 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.147. Data: 47 Al Baten games / 47 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ettifaq 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Baten at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Baten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 70% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Baten 1.20 / Al-Ettifaq 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.873 / def 1.462 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.682 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Baten 1 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Baten (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Baten's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.68x) against Al Baten's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.33
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.34
1.14
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.14 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Baten's recent record stands at 8W 12D 27L from 47 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 20L across 47 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Al Baten against 1.13 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Baten have managed 6W 6D 11L from 23 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 5W 8D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Baten are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.17 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 8W 12D 27L in their last 47 games (0.77 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Baten's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.04 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 on 9 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
1
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 52%, Al-Ettifaq 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Baten) and 44% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 35%; Al Baten have failed to score in 35% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Baten's recent matches and 35% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al Baten's recent games and 44% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Baten edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.20 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.14 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.87 / defence 1.46 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.68 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 36% | Draw 30% | Al-Ettifaq 34%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 53%, Al-Ettifaq 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 0.77 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Baten win broke the near-deadlock. Al Baten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.